As the storm from Hurricane Helene swept into North Carolina, David Easterling went into his backyard, just outside of Asheville, to check the rain gauge.
鈥淭o walk out and see it almost full was incredible,鈥� he says. 鈥淚t just rained and rained and rained. It was mind-boggling to see that much rain.鈥�
Easterling is quite possibly the least likely person to be surprised by this. He鈥檚 spent more than 30 years studying extreme rain, as a climate scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Asheville is home to a number of climate researchers who work at the agency鈥檚 National Centers for Environmental Information, the central repository for weather and climate data.
Easterling and his colleagues have published some of the most definitive studies showing that in a hotter climate. So, the storm鈥檚 forecast for more than 15 inches of rain made sense on paper.
鈥淏ut it just didn鈥檛 really, even with me, really click about what that's really going to mean,鈥� he says. 鈥淧robably, like anybody else, I was a little complacent about it.鈥�
The storm brought widespread destruction across Easterling鈥檚 community. Soils were already saturated before Hurricane Helene鈥檚 remnants came through and dropped 20 inches of rain in some places, which caused . The river swelled, demolishing buildings and destroying vital roads and highways. Easterling鈥檚 house is okay, but he worries about neighbors living in more remote valleys.
鈥淎ll the roads are washed out, they don鈥檛 have cell service and there鈥檚 no telling how many people have died in those places, " Easterling says. 鈥淚t鈥檚 heartbreaking.鈥�
Easterling says he and colleagues have started crunching the numbers and are finding that North Carolina likely exceeded a 1-in-1,000 year rainfall event. That鈥檚 a storm that has a 0.1 percent chance of happening every year. Still, that doesn鈥檛 mean it won鈥檛 happen again soon.
In much of the country, extreme storms are dropping even more rain. The planet is getting warmer as humans emit more heat-trapping pollution, largely from burning fossil fuels. A warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, and that fuels more intense downpours.
鈥淎 lot of people don鈥檛 want to hear global warming and climate change and all that, but this is just a classic sort of event that we, sadly, probably expect to see more of in the future,鈥� Easterling says.
The southeastern U.S. in particular is seeing the impact of heavier rain. Easterling鈥檚 research shows that since 1958, the most extreme storms in the region are dropping . If the climate continues to warm, Appalachia could see extreme storms that are .
The infrastructure in most communities, including roads, bridges and stormwater systems, is still largely designed for how storms used to be. Many cities are using , , to figure out how much water their infrastructure should be able to handle. That means projects being built today are already inadequate for the storms they鈥檙e experiencing.
After a new federal law was passed, NOAA is and will include projections of how climate change will make rain heavier. Those are expected to be released in 2026 and 2027. In the meantime, North Carolina and five other states in the region their current rainfall records, which is expected at the end of 2025. That data could be vital to communities looking to rebuild and reduce the risk of future flooding.
鈥淭he bottom line is: you gotta start planning for these kinds of events,鈥� Easterling says. 鈥淐ivil engineers need to be taking a hard look at what happened here.鈥�
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