You've heard of swing states. Here are 7 swing counties to watch

By Domenico Montanaro

Published November 5, 2024 at 7:15 PM EST

Residents cast in-person absentee ballots at a polling place set up at the Warner Park recreation center on October 30, 2024 in Madison, Wisconsin.

Here seven counties to watch 鈥� one in each swing state 鈥� that might give some idea how the race is going and why one candidate or the other won:

1. Montgomery County, Pa.: This wealthy and highly educated Philadelphia suburb is crucial to Democrats鈥� chances in the state. Biden netted 40,000 more votes here than Hillary Clinton in 2016, a third of the entire statewide vote shift in his favor.

2. Dane County, Wisc.: This heavily Democratic county has seen tremendous growth in the past decade. It accounted for 1-in-6 Democratic votes statewide in 2020, but 80% of the total vote shift in Biden's favor.

3. Wayne County, Mich.: It's home to Detroit and Dearborn, and may tell the story of whether Vice President Harris was able to turn out Black voters and how much the war in Gaza was a factor. Wayne is home to the largest concentration of Arab Americans anywhere in the country.

4. Henderson County, N.C.: This is one of the more populous Trump-won counties affected by Hurricane Helene in western North Carolina. Turnout there will give some idea of how Trump鈥檚 vote is affected.

5. Gwinnett County, Ga.: It has seen a population boom in the past decade, is the most populous suburban county in the state and is now majority non-white. It flipped in 2016 from Republican to Democrat and went by an even wider margin for Biden in 2020.

6. Maricopa County, Ariz.: Biden won Arizona by just over 10,000 votes, a 100,000-vote swing from 2016. And 90% of that came from Maricopa, home to Phoenix.

7. Clark County, Nev.: Almost 70% of all the state's votes come from this county, home to Las Vegas. It will tell us whether Trump鈥檚 appeals on the economy to working-class Latino voters worked. It's home to a significant share of Asian American and Black voters Harris also needs to help her win.

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