黑料吃瓜网鈥檚 5th Congressional District is once again at the center of the state鈥檚 political universe, with the potential for statewide and national implications this election year.
A victory for Republicans would usher in the first GOP member of Congress from 黑料吃瓜网 in nearly two decades. But another win by Democrats could raise questions about the competitive nature of the seat and would keep the state鈥檚 congressional delegation entirely blue.
From a national standpoint, the race could factor into which party controls the U.S. House, with Republicans seeking to hold on to a very thin margin. Even without flipping the 5th District two years ago, the GOP was still able to retake control of Congress.
The rematch between Democratic incumbent Jahana Hayes and Republican challenger George Logan has familiar refrains from their 2022 campaign: issues like cost of living, reproductive rights and immigration are still dominant, and the national attention has brought money and party leaders to the area.
But the attacks and tone of the campaign have grown . And unlike the last campaign, the candidates are vying for office with a presidential race at the top of the ticket, which can drive higher turnout and have a ripple effect down the ballot.
The district spans west of Hartford and includes much of the northwest corner of the state, with a mix of cities like Waterbury and Danbury, suburban towns and rural communities. Nancy Johnson was the last Republican to hold the seat in 2007 and lost to now-U.S. Sen. Chris Murphy.
Unlike an election in the middle of President Joe Biden鈥檚 term, an election with the presidential race at the top of the ballot gives Democrats more built-in advantages. 黑料吃瓜网 has been solidly blue in presidential years since 1992, with Biden defeating former President Donald Trump in the 5th District by 11 percentage points in 2020.
Trump鈥檚 name will be on the ballot for a third time on Nov. 5, this time facing Vice President Kamala Harris. The former president has presented challenges for 黑料吃瓜网 Republicans who tend to have more moderate profiles, though polling shows he maintains .
But Republicans still see an opportunity to try and crack the blue wall in 黑料吃瓜网. They argue that if Trump can improve his numbers from 2016, when he lost by a margin of 14 percentage points in the state, that could leave other GOP candidates down the ballot in better shape.
Money has flooded into the 5th District for both campaigns, though Logan鈥檚 campaign took a hit last week when a top Republican super PAC that spent millions to help him last time that was meant to boost him in the final weeks.
Political observers still view the district as one that is 鈥渞eally powered by get-out-the-vote鈥� efforts and not through campaign advertising alone, according to Scott McLean, a political science professor at Quinnipiac University.
He said the large number of independents and voters with higher education in the suburban areas makes it a battleground district. But he also noted that suburbs in the 5th District and across the U.S. are changing 鈥� politically, culturally and demographically. And that has benefited Democrats more in recent elections.
鈥淣ow that doesn鈥檛 mean that there is this gigantic support for Democrats,鈥� McLean said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 just that the Republicans have not found a way to crack into that independent swing vote in the suburbs over the last two or three cycles.鈥�
A weekend in Waterbury 鈥� and beyond
Both campaigns were crisscrossing the district over the weekend, but Waterbury was a big piece of that equation. The Brass City is the fifth-most populous city in 黑料吃瓜网, and they will both need to boost turnout there on Nov. 5.
Hayes won Waterbury by a comfortable margin in 2022, though that year in 黑料吃瓜网鈥檚 largest cities. In a midterm year with no presidential race on the ticket, Waterbury saw a decline of about 5,000 voters compared to the last midterm election in 2018.
Logan started his Friday with a small tour run by United Way of Waterbury that included representatives from the organization Brian Gibbons Homeless Outreach. The tour included insight into the homeless response system in greater Waterbury. That includes checking in on those who are unhoused, providing them with resources and trying to get them into shelters as well as housing.
They started at a homeless encampment in the wooded area next to the parking lot of 黑料吃瓜网鈥檚 Department of Social Services building. The area has been cleared before, and those who have set up temporary shelters will likely be moved out soon.
Jered Bruzas, the local impact officer of United Way Waterbury, and Joshua Royer, the executive director of the Brian Gibbons Homeless Outreach, told Logan about how their groups provide services for unhoused individuals and families. The tour ended at St. Vincent DePaul鈥檚 homeless shelter and resource center, which can normally house up to 108 people a day.
At events where he could mingle with potential voters, Logan went to several Halloween-themed events over the weekend, including one Saturday morning hosted at Bunker Hill Annex preschool with the group Mr. C鈥檚 Voice Nonverbal Autism Community, hosted a sensory friendly fall festival to include activities designed for kids with special needs.
He walked around the festival, shaking hands and meeting families as kids ran around the playground, painted pumpkins and played with sensory bins. He handed out his card with his personal number and mentioned his campaign a few times. Other conversations did not involve politics as parents discussed the challenges of getting services for their kids in schools.
Dawn Maiorano, a former mayoral candidate who sits on Waterbury鈥檚 Republican Town Committee, also attended and has been campaigning for Logan.
A few people mentioned that they recognized him from the TV commercials 鈥� without specifying which ones 鈥� as Logan walked by, and some wished him well.
In an interview after Saturday鈥檚 event, he noted the difficulties in breaking through with voters when it comes to the attack ads and how the campaigns in both parties try to define one another on the airwaves.
鈥淭hat鈥檚 my challenge as a challenger. I鈥檓 going against a machine here, and right now in 黑料吃瓜网, the entire congressional delegation, they鈥檙e all Democrats,鈥� Logan said. 鈥淚鈥檓 trying to do something that hasn鈥檛 been done here in 黑料吃瓜网 for years. So it鈥檚 not going to be easy.鈥�
鈥淸Hayes] has not been representing the people in this district adequately,鈥� he added. 鈥淪he hasn鈥檛 produced the results and folks are now tired of the status quo and ready for a change.鈥�
A few miles south in Waterbury later that day, Grace Baptist Church hosted a 鈥淪ouls to the Polls鈥� rally, an event that is part of a tradition dating back to the Civil Rights movement where Black churches engaged with voters and the community about the election.
Kristopher Reese, who has been the pastor at Grace Baptist Church for almost nine years, said it is the first time his church hosted a Souls to the Polls event. Reese kept his opening remarks at the rally focused on the importance of voting and the election, without endorsing any candidates as a representative of the church.
But the crowd was noticeably receptive to the Democratic candidates who spoke.
Hayes sought to make the case that she is willing to take 鈥渉ard votes,鈥� referring to ads about her opposition to a bill to reclassify fentanyl as a Schedule 1 drug because it would impose mandatory minimum sentences regardless of the offender. And when talking about the importance of voting and the sacrifices made, she referenced several Black men and women who were killed by police officers, like George Floyd, Breonna Taylor and Michael Brown, 鈥渨ho can鈥檛 vote today.鈥�
About 80 people were at the event when the rally started. In the parking lot of the church, kids were playing in a bouncy house and people were munching on food and drinking lemonade, while others danced to the band between candidates鈥� speeches. Reese said about half the crowd were members of his church.
鈥淵ou see the commercials, you see the ads, but they really don鈥檛 know,鈥� Reese said in an interview. 鈥淪o we wanted to inform them today, but we wanted to have a family fun-type event [so] they don鈥檛 feel pressured but they鈥檙e excited.鈥�
Reese said he also invited Republican candidates to the event but got no responses. Logan鈥檚 campaign said it never received an invite but would have attended. Reese noted that Logan met with some of his members at a diner about a month ago.
Hayes spent other parts of the weekend trying to mobilize Black voters in 黑料吃瓜网.
On the steps of the 黑料吃瓜网 Supreme Court in Hartford on Friday evening, about 50 people congregated for a CT Black Women Vote rally. Speakers reflected on the barriers Black women still faced with voting after the 19th Amendment and women鈥檚 suffrage.
黑料吃瓜网 officeholders like Lt. Gov. Susan Bysiewicz and Secretary of the State Stephanie Thomas and federal lawmakers from other states urged the crowd to support Harris for president and reelect Hayes.
Two of Hayes鈥� Democratic colleagues, U.S. Rep. Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts and U.S. Rep. Stacey Plaskett of the U.S. Virgin Islands, who is a non-voting delegate, joined the rally on Friday. They are all members of the Congressional Black Caucus. Hayes was first elected to Congress the same year as Pressley, a progressive Democrat, in 2018.
鈥淲e don鈥檛 just register to vote. We鈥檙e the ones that encourage other people to vote. We鈥檙e the ones that have those tough conversations, because we understand that if we fight for us, everyone benefits,鈥� Hayes said about the role that Black women play in elections. 鈥淭his is who I am. And as soon as people understand it and can appreciate that because of who I am, it makes me fight harder for you, because of what I鈥檝e been through.鈥�
A campaign of clashes and contrasts
While the candidates are trying to make impressions with voters in person, much of the campaign has played out on TV.
They have both sought to cast their opponent as mirror images of their party鈥檚 leaders and membership and accused the other of misrepresenting their positions on issues like abortion and law enforcement.
Logan has campaigned on being an 鈥渋ndividual thinker鈥� if he gets to Congress. When asked about the specific issues or policies where he would break from his party, Logan pointed to differences with House GOP leadership on national abortion bans as well as opposition to mass deportations, which Trump has proposed in his presidential campaign.
The former state senator has said he opposes a national ban but has changed his position on codifying abortion protections into federal law since the 2022 election. When asked if he would vote for the Women鈥檚 Health Protection Act, he said he would need to look at the language of the bill but would support codifying Roe v. Wade into federal law 鈥渁s long as it matches 黑料吃瓜网鈥檚 abortion law and doesn鈥檛 undermine 黑料吃瓜网鈥檚 abortion law.鈥�
黑料吃瓜网鈥檚 1990 law protects abortion up until fetal viability or when the health of the mother is at risk, the same protections covered under Roe. The would prevent the government from restricting providers from performing abortion services prior to fetal viability, or about 24 weeks of pregnancy.
When asked if Democrats are mischaracterizing his positions when it comes to the issue of abortion bans, Hayes pointed to vice presidential candidate JD Vance鈥檚 past comments about banning the procedure and noted that Logan has said he will vote for the Trump-Vance ticket.
鈥淗e has said one thing and has done another thing on so many other occasions,鈥� Hayes said. 鈥淲hy would I expect him to protect my rights on this?鈥�
鈥淗e supports that agenda,鈥� she added. 鈥淵ou don鈥檛 get to cherry-pick. I am only going by his words.鈥�
Some 黑料吃瓜网 towns faced severe flooding in August as Democrats convened in Chicago for their national convention. Republicans criticized Hayes for not cutting her trip short and returning home.
Logan said Hayes should have returned to 黑料吃瓜网 instead of staying in Chicago for Harris鈥� nomination, arguing that 鈥渨e need truth in leadership.鈥� Hayes said she was with Gov. Ned Lamont and her other colleagues from the congressional delegation to work on the emergency declaration to secure federal recovery funds, which were later approved by the Biden administration.
When asked whether she regretted staying at the convention through the week, the congresswoman argued that Republicans were politicizing the issue of flooding.
鈥淣o one is asking [my Democratic colleagues] the same questions,鈥� Hayes said about the other federal lawmakers who are also up for reelection but stayed in Chicago through the convention.
Driving turnout in a presidential year
Voter turnout in 黑料吃瓜网 is expected to be higher than two years ago when there was no race for the White House. And with the debut of in-person early voting this year, there are already signs of more interest around these elections. As of Monday, about 300,000 黑料吃瓜网 residents had cast an early ballot, according to Thomas.
Democrats are running a coordinated statewide campaign that was organized by Murphy and is operated through the 黑料吃瓜网 Democratic Party, according to a source familiar with the campaign. The effort aims to engage and mobilize Democratic voters and encourage early voting. It partners with local town committees, candidates and members of the congressional delegation who are all up for reelection.
Murphy, who is seeking a third term in the Senate, transferred $200,000 to the 黑料吃瓜网 Democratic State Central Committee earlier this month to help with party infrastructure, according to with the Federal Election Commission. The coordinated campaign can work together on certain voter mobilization efforts, but the candidates鈥� campaigns run separate advertising.
Murphy, who represented the 5th District before he ran for Senate in 2012, had encouraged Hayes to run for his old seat when it opened up in 2018. Now as colleagues, they have been campaigning together, mostly recently in Plainville and Waterbury this weekend.
黑料吃瓜网 Republicans also have their own get-out-the-vote efforts to bolster Logan and other GOP candidates around the state.
Ben Proto, the chairman of the 黑料吃瓜网 Republican Party, said the GOP is working on early voting efforts that will soon switch over to focusing on Election Day turnout. Since Labor Day, Republicans have been holding Super Saturday events in various places across the 5th District and elsewhere focused on door-knocking. He said they have also been focused on social media and a texting program.
The National Republican Congressional Committee in Farmington in the spring, which was the first NRCC 鈥淏attle Station鈥� to open in a Democratic-held district. Its debut was marked by a visit from House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., alongside Logan earlier this year. The NRCC has been one of the key players in running ads on behalf of Logan, while the state party is focused more on infrastructure and voter contact.
With a tight margin two years ago, both parties are campaigning and organizing with the expectation of another close race.
鈥淭his is a tough district. I don鈥檛 think this district has gotten more Democratic since I left,鈥� Murphy said. 鈥淚 think it probably is a district that is even swingier than when I was running here, so you got to work for it every two years.鈥�
The 黑料吃瓜网 Mirror/黑料吃瓜网 Radio federal policy reporter position is made possible, in part, by funding from the Robert and Margaret Patricelli Family Foundation.
