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Until the Trump administration halted most U.S. foreign assistance programs, America was the top donor to global health. Now that much of that aid has stopped, researchers have been trying to figure out what the effect is going to be on people's health in low- and middle-income countries. NPR's Gabrielle Emanuel reports on a study looking specifically at HIV and AIDS.
GABRIELLE EMANUEL, BYLINE: For the past few decades, the world has made progress in preventing and treating HIV. Much of that progress has been paid for by five countries.
DEBRA TEN BRINK: That's the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany and the Netherlands. And together, they make up 90% of international funding.
EMANUEL: Debra ten Brink is at the Burnet Institute, a medical research organization in Melbourne, Australia. She says all of these countries have announced plans to shrink that aid. Brink and her team modeled what this could mean for HIV infections and deaths. Their study was published this week in The Lancet HIV. The study found that if the most extreme cuts go into effect, it could mean taking AIDS back to the peak of the epidemic in the mid-'90s.
TEN BRINK: In 2030, that would mean 3.4 million infections, and we saw on the height of the HIV epidemic there were 3.3 million HIV infections. So that's a - really going back in time by - what is it? - 30 years, almost. You know, reverting all that progress.
EMANUEL: She says the toll would not be evenly distributed around the world.
TEN BRINK: So sub-Saharan Africa is, you know, the region with the highest burden and most dependent on international funding. So they would be the hardest-hit area by far.
EMANUEL: A memo from the Trump administration to Congress that was obtained by NPR suggests many HIV-AIDS programs are being cut, but some will be spared. John Stover is with Avenir Health. It's a nonprofit that does data analysis for public health programs. Stover says the study published in The Lancet was well-done and it's the kind of information a lot of people are looking for right now, including members of Congress who have been getting in touch with researchers like him.
JOHN STOVER: Lots of different groups are trying to provide information to congressmen who are - you know, have to eventually vote on the future of assistance.
EMANUEL: He says the models of how many more people will get sick from AIDS, how many more people will die - they vary a bit. But...
STOVER: Well, when you look at the big picture across all countries supported by U.S. assistance, all the models agree that the impact is tremendous.
EMANUEL: One thing that makes the impact so tremendous, he says, is just how abruptly the cuts have been made without a transition plan in place.
Gabrielle Emanuel, NPR News.
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